Scottish seed potatoes are a premium global product, and the industry underpins UK potato production that is worth an estimated £4-5bn across all upstream and downstream sectors. The sustainability of this industry is under threat, however, due to increasing levels of potato virus Y and potato leaf roll virus.

These viral diseases are transmitted by aphids, and they cause growth disorders, leaf symptoms, and yield losses. The recent increase in the occurrence of these diseases is likely due to multiple factors, such as climate change, the loss of important aphicides, and a general lack of coordinated management strategies, including accurate predictive models to support decision-making. Current methods used to forecast these diseases at a national scale do not offer sufficient resolution to tackle localised virus health issues.

This project will employ state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to develop improved models for forecasting these diseases and contribute to a better understanding of virus epidemiology, which will support management strategies to reduce disease impacts.

Previous PHC projects found that biocontrol is one of the elements of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) with a role to play in mitigating pesticide withdrawals. However, it is currently unclear how practical biocontrol is as a suitable alternative to pesticides in Scotland, what the opportunities are for deployment across different sectors and what barriers exist to uptake (include regulatory).

Research on biocontrol agents is required to understand a) what relevant previous work has taken place, b) the potential benefits for agricultural, horticultural and forestry applications in Scotland, and c) is the current risk assessment framework and regulatory system fit for purpose?

This project will improve our understanding of the potential of biocontrol agents in Scottish production systems and gardens; synthesising findings from workshops with stakeholders and literature review.

Previous research shows that better informed farmers and agronomists can make better IPM decisions and score higher in IPM metrics (PHC2020/05). Research has also identified that decision making on farm is often shared between the farm agronomist and the farmer. However, there is a knowledge gap on how factors influencing IPM scores link to available impact metrics such as pesticide usage.

This project will look to improve the flow of IPM knowledge and its uptake to increase the resilience of Scotland’s crops to pests and diseases, whilst reducing reliance on pesticides.

The drivers and barriers to further adoption of IPM practices for different decision makers and for different farm types will be identified, improving the ability to tailor IPM research and knowledge transfer and exchange activities to consider, if not overcome, those barriers and improve uptake.