Flora Donald

Tree Health Policy Officer
Scottish Forestry


Project Lead: Adam Kleczkowski
This project seeks clarity on how Scottish Sitka spruce forests might respond to further increases in pressure from climate change and existing or new pests and their potential synergistic effects.

Building on an existing decision support tool developed as part of a previous PHC funded project (PHC2018/14), the project will produce an updated modelling framework with key processes and parametrisations for D. micans (present in Scotland) and an initial assessment for I. typographus (invasive) risks under changing climate.

Initial economic analysis of the impact of different scenarios will also be produced, as well as pathways for incorporating future research results. The project was jointly developed with Scottish Forestry and Forestry and Land Scotland who will be involved throughout the process, particularly in developing the policy advice and bringing in industry views, including during workshops that will assess the modelling framework, with recommendations being incorporated into the final version.

This project was selected for funding from the Project Call: “Enhancing preparedness against pests and diseases: plugging evidence gaps for Scotland”.


The potential of ecological and epidemiological models to inform assessment and mitigation of biosecurity risks arising from large scale planting

October 2021

Large scale planting projects linked to infra-structure such as transport networks and major housing projects or to planting for environmental benefits (e.g., urban greening, woodland restoration) pose high biosecurity risks due to the high number and types of plants involved. This report focusses on whether and how ecological and epidemiological model frameworks can inform assessment and mitigation of biosecurity risks from large scale planting using a combination of literature review and stakeholder engagement.  The project aimed to identify priority steps to develop more useful models and tools for assessing biosecurity risks from planting in the future.