Adam Kleczkowski

Image of Adam Kleczkowski
Mathematics and Statistics
University of Strathclyde

Since obtaining his Theoretical Physics PhD from the Jagiellonian University in Poland in 1989, he has been working on Mathematical Biology, applying models to study human, animal and plant diseases, soil and terrestrial biodiversity, and climate change. He also has worked on parameter estimation for ecological and epidemiological systems. After a post-doctoral post in Germany, he came to Cambridge in 1992, to work on human and plant diseases. In 2007 he moved to Stirling and in 2018 he joined the University of Strathclyde as a Global Talent Chair. His recent work has been on bioeconomic modelling of crop and tree diseases, linking supply of pollination services to pesticide use, and addressing food security and sustainability in aquaculture, with funding coming from BBSRC, NERC, Scottish Government and Defra. He was part of the Expert Group that provided advice to Scottish Government on the business case for the Plant Health Centre.

 

 

Projects

Project Lead: Vivian Blok
Potato cyst nematode (PCN) remains an important threat to potato production in the UK as elsewhere and is a particular concern to the Scottish seed industry, since land found to be infested with the pest cannot be used to grow seed. However, ware crops can still be grown which may exacerbate issues for the seed potato industry. While there is good cultivar resistance (ca 50% of potatoes in Scotland) to species Globodera rostochiensis, helping to halt its spread, there is little resistance to a second species (G. pallida), which has a greater potential to increase and spread. This is likely to have a detrimental effect on the seed industry in Scotland in the future but how much of an effect is not clear. This project is divided into four parts to help better understand the threat from PCN in the future:

• A review of possible interventions to include a review of PCN management in other countries to inform the work packages below:-
• Modelling future risks of both G. rostochiensis and G. palida using interventions identified in the review and climate scenarios.
• Grower behaviours and attitudes to interventions, to include input from industry stakeholders.
• An economic analysis of likely impact in Scotland based on a range of possible interventions.

Impact: A clearer understanding of possible control options, economic impacts of available interventions and the likelihood of growers and buyers adopting new resistant varieties, altering rotation practices or any other interventions such that recommendations on best strategies (including statutory controls) can be made.
Project Lead: Adam Kleczkowski
The movement of plant pests and pathogens into Scotland in likely to increase in the coming years, e.g. due to changes in trade, potentially increasing from outside Europe following Brexit, while their spread and severity could be affected by climate change (both positively and negatively). It is therefore vital that we understand the role of climate on the impacts of such pests and diseases across the whole of Scotland, in relation to the distribution of plant hosts, allowing us to target potential control options on the main threats. To allow plant health professionals and others to assess such impacts in as straight forward a way as possible, web- / desktop-based tools are needed that offer quick and easy access to complex computer models. These models should be as comprehensive as possible, allowing new information on pests, pathogens and their hosts to be added as it becomes available.

Impact: Easily accessible tool for PHC and government plant health officials to assess possible impacts of climate on pests and pathogens in Scotland.

Publications

Impact of climate change on the spread of pests and diseases in Scotland

June 2020

This project constructed a modelling framework which combined epidemiological and economic modelling.  The modelling framework was used to study predictions of spread and economic impact of pests which are not currently in the UK, including Xylella fastidiosa, Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (Zebra chip) and Ips typographus (Eight toothed Spruce Bark Beetle). 

Impact:  A web/desktop application is available to the PHC and Scottish Government to analyse the effects of climate change on the spread and economic impact of new threats. 

Forestry | Final Report

Modelling Framework for invasive pests: Emerald ash borer as a case study

June 2020

This project investigated whether modelling could aid preparation for a potential bark beetle and wood borer invasion of Scotland. This was achieved by: (i) reviewing suitability of modelling results and frameworks in literature; (ii) recommendations on how these could be rapidly adapted for Scottish and UK plant health context and (iii) case study on Emerald ash borer to exemplify approach.