This project seeks clarity on how Scottish Sitka spruce forests might respond to further increases in pressure from climate change and existing or new pests and their potential synergistic effects.

Building on an existing decision support tool developed as part of a previous PHC funded project (PHC2018/14), the project will produce an updated modelling framework with key processes and parametrisations for D. micans (present in Scotland) and an initial assessment for I. typographus (invasive) risks under changing climate.

Initial economic analysis of the impact of different scenarios will also be produced, as well as pathways for incorporating future research results. The project was jointly developed with Scottish Forestry and Forestry and Land Scotland who will be involved throughout the process, particularly in developing the policy advice and bringing in industry views, including during workshops that will assess the modelling framework, with recommendations being incorporated into the final version.

This project was selected for funding from the Project Call: “Enhancing preparedness against pests and diseases: plugging evidence gaps for Scotland”.

Insecticides are commonly used in Scottish agricultural, horticultural, forestry production, and for amenity and natural environment management purposes. Over the last 10 years, approximately 50% of UK insecticide active substances have been withdrawn due to increasing concern over human health and environmental impacts. Some of these losses will be mitigated by using alternatives but their practicality and cost under Scottish conditions is unknown. Given the likelihood that regulatory restrictions on pesticide usage will not be reduced, widespread adoption of IPM might offer a way to reduce reliance upon at risk pesticides.

This project will deliver an expert review of available literature to identify the insecticides of concern to Scotland and their association with current practices. This targeted review will identify available alternatives and their efficacy, and any interdependencies and evidence gaps will be identified. A key outcome of this call will be case studies of the alternative methods adopted by stakeholders to mitigate the impact of insecticide withdrawal, combined with desk-based and expert opinion and analysis on their efficacy, practicality and cost.

Three projects (PHC2019/04/05/06) were conducted in 2020/21 that investigated large-scale biosecurity risks to Scotland from several supply-chains and planting approaches. This project was commissioned, within the original scope of the aforementioned projects, to conduct further research with a strong likelihood of strengthening and expanding their findings. This project seeks to engage with hard-to-reach actors and the wider sector through their membership organisations.

PHC2021/08 will implement an Action Research approach, delivered through workshops co-designed with network organisations, to better understand current plant biosecurity risks in several sectors, to identify their plant health knowledge needs, and to begin to embed biosecurity training within existing organisations, programmes and processes.

The outcomes of the project will be:
• An enhanced understanding of the knowledge and training needs of different sectors and the identification of biosecurity actions that will fill some of the gaps identified by PHC2019/04/05/06
• The identification of further training needs and potential approaches to address the problems identified
• A legacy of close working relationships between the PHC and several network organisations, key to future plant biosecurity research or training delivery activities

Whilst it is generally agreed that ‘prevention is better than cure’ in plant health, translating such logic into precautionary actions does not always happen. Precautions can be encouraged in a variety of ways – through development of implementable actions, risk assessments, encouragement of best practice, and general appeals to adopt approaches which prevent future losses. However, this does not adequately address risky behaviour. Whilst better information may not be sufficient to change practices, there is a weakness in our ability to justify precaution. This project seeks to address this gap by considering whether there are different approaches, or additional information which might be considered.

Drawing upon and summarise existing literature, in addition to engagement with experts and practitioners with knowledge of existing sectoral practices in Scotland, UK and internationally, as well as gap analysis, the project will generate a better understanding of the rationale for taking precautions and an improved evidence base with which to justify taking action, answering four main questions:
• What are the current barriers to adopting precautionary measures?
• How can barriers be reduced?
• What are the limitations of the current risk assessment process?, and
• What are the priority areas for action and further research?

Birch is an important component of Scotland’s broadleaved woodlands and as individual trees in Scottish landscapes – with high aesthetic and biodiversity associated values as well as a range of uses for the wood. Birch, because of pioneering qualities and rapid early growth, is often favoured by woodland managers in native woodland reforestation, and because it copes with exposure and poor site conditions, can provide shelter for domestic animals in many upland farming regions. The Bronze Birch Borer (BBB) is not present in the UK but is regarded as high risk (UK Pest Risk Register) and represent a serious threat to Scotland’s broadleaved trees, woods and forests. The relative importance of birch to Scottish growers and landscapes suggests a stronger sensitivity to the threat of BBB than generally across the UK; characterization of the BBB threat is poor, e.g. compared to Emerald Ash Borer, a related pest.

This project is being conducted on behalf of the Plant Heath Centre, Scottish Forestry and NatureScot and aims to better characterise the threat of BBB to Scotland.

Impact: Draw together available evidence and, where feasible, gather new evidence relating to the threat of Bronze Birch Borer to Scotland; and provide information to inform contingency plans and make recommendations for further work to refine the evidence.