Risk mapping of the likelihood and impact of a Xylella fastidiosa outbreak in Scotland

Risk map Scotland
Xylella fastidiosa is a bacterial plant pathogen that can cause disease in a broad range of hosts. Disease symptoms include leaf scorch, wilting of foliage, dieback and plant death. Xylella fastidiosa was first detected in Europe in 2013 in Puglia in Italy and was identified as subspecies pauca which has gone on to devastate olive plantations in this region. There are currently major Xylella outbreaks in Southern France, including Corsica, Italy, mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands.

Although Xylella has so far not been detected in Scotland, an outbreak would have serious impacts on any host plant-related activities/businesses and the wider environment. An essential aspect of ensuring Scotland’s preparedness for the possible arrival of Xylella is to prepare a risk map for the likelihood of the arrival of Xylella together with the consequences for key elements of the Scottish economy (directly and indirectly impacted) in the event of an outbreak. Data relevant to the risk mapping for Scotland would include location of sites involved in plant imports, volume of plants imported, impact on business trading in plants if an outbreak is detected and the wider environmental impact.

Impact: This project will contribute to Scottish Government’s contingency and preparedness measures for the possible arrival of Xylella fastidiosa by mapping the risk of likelihood and impact of an outbreak.
Publication Type (field_publication_type)
Forestry, Horticulture, Agriculture, Environment | Final Report and Policy Document

Improving knowledge of Xylella fastidiosa vector ecology: modelling vector occurrence and abundance in the wider landscape in Scotland

May 2022

If introduced to the UK, the insect-vectored, bacterial plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa could be a serious threat to trees and other plants. There is a lack of knowledge about the ecology and distributions of Xylella vectors in Scotland and the potential effects of this on any outbreak of the disease, which this project aimed to address.

Strategic Portfolio Centres of Expertise

October 2021

The Centres of Expertise (CoE) work at the interface between policy and research and provide responsive work in areas of high policy importance: climate change, animal disease outbreaks, plant health, water, knowledge exchange and impact. The Centres draw upon the expertise of the researchers of the Scottish Environment, Food and Agriculture Research Institutes (SEFARI), universities, government agencies and research organisations across Scotland. Each Centre has its own style, leadership, and governance, but all have the same ethos: delivering evidence with impact. In this leaflet, each CoE highlights examples of where that impact has really made a difference.

Impact of climate change on the spread of pests and diseases in Scotland

June 2020

This project constructed a modelling framework which combined epidemiological and economic modelling.  The modelling framework was used to study predictions of spread and economic impact of pests which are not currently in the UK, including Xylella fastidiosa, Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (Zebra chip) and Ips typographus (Eight toothed Spruce Bark Beetle). 

Impact:  A web/desktop application is available to the PHC and Scottish Government to analyse the effects of climate change on the spread and economic impact of new threats. 

Position:
Institution: Forest Research
Position:
Institution: Forest Research