Using modelling to investigate the effectiveness of national surveillance monitoring aimed at detecting a Xylella fastidiosa outbreak in Scotland

Xylella modelling
Xylella fastidiosa is a bacterial plant pathogen that can cause disease in a broad range of hosts. Disease symptoms include leaf scorch, wilting of foliage, dieback and plant death. Xylella fastidiosa was first detected in Europe in 2013 in Puglia in Italy and was identified as subspecies pauca which has gone on to devastate olive plantations in this region. There are currently major Xylella outbreaks in Southern France, including Corsica, Italy, mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands. Although Xylella has so far not been detected in Scotland, an outbreak would have serious impacts on any businesses where Xylella is detected and the wider environment. An essential aspect of ensuring that Xylella is not introduced to Scotland is to establish, through modelling, that national surveillance monitoring aimed at detecting a Xylella outbreak is effective. In addition, it is important to identify which epidemiological parameters most strongly influence the effectiveness of surveillance, to guide where future empirical research should be targeted to reduce any uncertainty.

Impact: This project will contribute to Scottish Government’s preparedness measures for the possible arrival of Xylella fastidiosa by ensuring surveillance monitoring is effective and by identifying the key knowledge gaps for effective surveillance.
Publication Type (field_publication_type)
Forestry, Horticulture, Agriculture, Environment | Final Report and Policy Document

Improving knowledge of Xylella fastidiosa vector ecology: modelling vector occurrence and abundance in the wider landscape in Scotland

May 2022

If introduced to the UK, the insect-vectored, bacterial plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa could be a serious threat to trees and other plants. There is a lack of knowledge about the ecology and distributions of Xylella vectors in Scotland and the potential effects of this on any outbreak of the disease, which this project aimed to address.

Strategic Portfolio Centres of Expertise

October 2021

The Centres of Expertise (CoE) work at the interface between policy and research and provide responsive work in areas of high policy importance: climate change, animal disease outbreaks, plant health, water, knowledge exchange and impact. The Centres draw upon the expertise of the researchers of the Scottish Environment, Food and Agriculture Research Institutes (SEFARI), universities, government agencies and research organisations across Scotland. Each Centre has its own style, leadership, and governance, but all have the same ethos: delivering evidence with impact. In this leaflet, each CoE highlights examples of where that impact has really made a difference.

Impact of climate change on the spread of pests and diseases in Scotland

June 2020

This project constructed a modelling framework which combined epidemiological and economic modelling.  The modelling framework was used to study predictions of spread and economic impact of pests which are not currently in the UK, including Xylella fastidiosa, Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (Zebra chip) and Ips typographus (Eight toothed Spruce Bark Beetle). 

Impact:  A web/desktop application is available to the PHC and Scottish Government to analyse the effects of climate change on the spread and economic impact of new threats. 

Position:
Institution: University of Stirling
Position:
Institution: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Position:
Group Leader, Ecology Evolution and Environmental Change
Institution: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Position:
Institution: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology