Using modelling to investigate the effectiveness of national surveillance monitoring aimed at detecting a Xylella fastidiosa outbreak in Scotland
Impact: This project will contribute to Scottish Government’s preparedness measures for the possible arrival of Xylella fastidiosa by ensuring surveillance monitoring is effective and by identifying the key knowledge gaps for effective surveillance.
The Centres of Expertise (CoE) work at the interface between policy and research and provide responsive work in areas of high policy importance: climate change, animal disease outbreaks, plant health, water, knowledge exchange and impact. The Centres draw upon the expertise of the researchers of the Scottish Environment, Food and Agriculture Research Institutes (SEFARI), universities, government agencies and research organisations across Scotland. Each Centre has its own style, leadership, and governance, but all have the same ethos: delivering evidence with impact. In this leaflet, each CoE highlights examples of where that impact has really made a difference.
This project constructed a modelling framework which combined epidemiological and economic modelling. The modelling framework was used to study predictions of spread and economic impact of pests which are not currently in the UK, including Xylella fastidiosa, Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum (Zebra chip) and Ips typographus (Eight toothed Spruce Bark Beetle).
Impact: A web/desktop application is available to the PHC and Scottish Government to analyse the effects of climate change on the spread and economic impact of new threats.
Status, Scottish specific issues, Plant Health Centre perspective and Key priorities and recommendations concerning the threat from Xylella fastidiosa to Scotland